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Predictive Models

Predictive Models

Access predictive models, including indices, maps, country scorecards, methodologies and data sources.

Verisk Maplecroft's new Predictive Models Risk Atlas 2016-Q4 is now available

The Predictive Models dataset provides a forward-looking assessment of the risk environment, using statistical models to predict how specific risks will develop across a range of countries in the following calendar year. At present the dataset consists of two models looking at State Instability (probability of onset) and Civil Disorder (% variance from five year average); this number will increase over time as new models are developed (e.g. inter-state tensions being developed in the second half of 2016). The Predictive Models have been developed to enable multinational organisations to anticipate, prioritise and manage threats to global operations, supply chain continuity and corporate reputations.