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Political Risk Outlook 2017: Terrorism threats

2016 saw a number of high-profile terrorist attacks in countries without a significant recent profile of terrorism – including the US, France, Belgium and Germany. Belgium, for example, experienced four terrorist incidents in 2016 in which 32 people died and a further 300 were wounded, in comparison to the previous decade in which there were three attacks resulting in five fatalities. Looking ahead to 2017, Verisk Maplecroft’s Terrorism Risk Index – which assesses the intensity of recent attacks, the capacity of security forces to intercept and disrupt terror plots, and the degree to which terrorist groups are active in a country – shows that Turkey is particularly exposed to further attacks, reflecting its proximity to the Islamic State in Syria. Within western Europe, France and Belgium remain on a high state of alert following last year’s attacks and ongoing threats from groups and individuals associating themselves with jihadist organisations. As shown in the graphic below, which recently featured in Bloomberg’s review of our Political Risk Outlook 2017, some of this risk is offset by strong counter-terrorism capabilities.

More information on our Political Risk Outlook 2017