Human Rights Outlook 2020

In this year’s Human Rights Outlook, we start by looking at how modern slavery risks have intensified in the epicentre of global manufacturing. Our latest Modern Slavery Index reveals that the majority of Asia’s manufacturing countries are now at their lowest point in the global ranking since 2017, including China, India, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia and Vietnam.

We expect these risks to accelerate as millions of newly unemployed workers turn to more exploitative forms of work just to stay afloat. Travel restrictions have also left the ability of companies to carry out audits in their supply chains in disarray, meaning the reputational risks to brands from association with modern slavery are now higher than at any other time over recent years.

Human rights is of course the most burning issue for Hong Kong, where China has recently imposed a draconian new national security law to crush dissent. The risks to multinationals and their employees are manifold as the human rights gap between the territory and the mainland closes.

We see the new legislation as a ‘game changer.’ Rollbacks in the rule of law and civil and political rights now mean companies face the potential for the politicised detention of employees as China targets companies over the actions of their home governments in the deteriorating geopolitical environment. The risk of being caught up in the sanctions crossfire between Beijing and Washington is also rising, while companies could face fines, asset seizures or the revocation of business licences if judged to have threatened national security – a provision designed to ensure global firms toe Beijing’s political line.

Outside of Asia, we turn our attention to commodity supply chains. An unforeseen consequence of the pandemic is the spiralling demand for alcohol-based hand sanitiser, and its key ingredient ethanol, as the chief weapon against the spread of the virus. However, this will likely come at the expense of human rights in the production of sugarcane – used to distil ethanol – and raises the spectre of violations entering corporate supply chains.

Our Commodity Risk Service shows that child labour, forced labour and the destruction of habitats already represent a significant risk in seven of the nine largest sugarcane-producing countries. As result of the surge in demand, labour rights and environmental violations look set to worsen, especially in Brazil, the world’s primary source of the commodity.

The negative impacts of the coronavirus on human rights in the production of soft commodities also extends to Africa. Fluctuating demand and falling prices for coffee, tea and cocoa are creating fertile ground for the increased use of child labour in countries such as Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya.

Western governments will likely take more punitive action to combat child labour in commodity supply chains as the 2025 SDG deadline approaches. With growing support in the EU for stricter reporting and supply chain tracing, failure by industry stakeholders to take preventive action now will likely result in consequences later on.

The lines between political risk and human rights are also blurring across many of these countries. Asia is now the highest risk region in both our Right to Privacy and Freedom of Opinion and Expression indices. These rights have steadily worsened over the last four years, but we see Asia further cementing itself as the world’s surveillance hotspot as we move beyond the pandemic.

The extreme measures and unchecked powers implemented to combat the current health crisis are likely to be extended and eventually become permanent fixtures of state governance. One of the key dangers lies in governments’ unrestricted access to personal data, which could be used to stymie political opposition, curtail the free speech of populations and monitor foreign nationals, including the employees of multinational organisations.