Global Risks Forecast

A major counter-terrorism offensive in South Waziristan follows a breach of security allowing an Islamist attack on Army Headquarters and triggers a wave of further attacks across Pakistan. Previous counter-terrorism drives show that the only certain outcome for this offensive is the displacement of tens of thousands of people

Event

On 17 October Pakistani security forces launched an air and ground offensive against an estimated 1,500 Islamist extremists in South Waziristan. The security forces say most of the militants they are targeting are foreigners and that around 80 percent of terrorist attacks in Pakistan originate in South Waziristan. The offensive involves around 30,000 soldiers and is expected to continue for six to eight weeks. To date, the operation has caused the displacement of tens of thousands of people while prospects for its success are uncertain.

Significance

The operation in South Waziristan follows a string of attacks by Taliban-linked extremists in the aftermath of the killing of their leader, Baitullah Mehsud on 5 August, 2009. Mehsud led an umbrella group called Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which linked various pro-Taliban militias. He was killed in an air drone attack.

The response to his death was a well-planned attack on Army Headquarters in Rawalpindi on 10 October 2009. Gunmen dressed in army fatigues stormed the building taking 42 hostages. The siege ended 18 hours later after Pakistan army commandoes stormed the headquarters. Four militants and three hostages were killed in the operation and six people were killed in the initial assault, including a brigadier and a colonel. The attack was a significant embarrassment for the Pakistani army, exposing its vulnerability to Islamist extremism. It occurred as the army was planning the South Waziristan offensive and so enabled militants to show that they could attack first.

Earlier that week, on 5 October 2009, a suicide bomber dressed in military uniform attacked the UN World Food Programme offices in Islamabad, killing five people. Guards had reportedly allowed the man into the compound. The attack was designed to intimidate aid workers who are badly needed in Pakistan’s conflict zones. On 9 October 2009, 48 people were killed when a suicide car bomber attacked a busy market place in Peshawar, North West Frontier Province. It was described by media as one of the most lethal attacks in a city that has become a consistent target of the Taliban.

In the two weeks since the South Waziristan offensive began, there have been at least seven terrorist attacks across the country. This included a twin suicide bombing at Islamabad's International Islamic University on 20 October 2009, killing five and a car bomb attack 23 October 2009 in Peshawar that killed at least 15 people.

Uncertain progress

Though reporting on the South Waziristan offensive is patchy, some progress is apparently being made. On 26 October 2009, the army reported that it had moved forward from Kotkai, the hometown of the new TTP chief, Hakimullah Mehsud, and secured important roads leading to Inzar Kalle and Sararogha, the main base of TTP. Security forces also reported securing Gharlai village on main road from Kotkai to Sararogha and the adjoining ridges as well as Sarwek village. They say the area is now free of militants and that they have begun to clear landmines.

Despite these positive updates, previous offensives against Islamist extremists in Pakistan’s tribal areas have not brought lasting success (see our related article). They have cost the lives of at least 2,000 troops and ended in times with peace agreements that critics say gave the insurgents a chance to re-arm. The last major operation against the Taliban in South Waziristan took place in late January 2008, though there was a smaller anti-terrorism campaign there during June 2009 (see our related article).

The offensives in the Bajur and Mohmand tribal regions earlier in 2009 were hailed as victories, but militants remain active in both areas. During previous offensives, Islamists have not hesitated to kill tribal leaders who oppose them, creating a climate of fear and underscoring their control in areas where there is minimal state influence. Crucially, there has also been little reconstruction in these parts of Pakistan that lack infrastructure and development.

Humanitarian consequences

The most immediate impact of the offensive has been on the civilian population. Pakistani media reported on 26 October 2009 that some 200,000 people had abandoned their homes in South Waziristan due to the military offensive. The UN said that around half of those people had been displaced during the past two weeks and the other half had fled the tribal areas during previous military operations between May and August 2009.

UN Agencies and their humanitarian partner organisations are now providing food, household and hygiene supplies, water supplies and vaccination campaigns. The Pakistani government has pledged cash assistance of 5,000 rupees (US$60 dollars) for each displaced family every month as non-food support. More worrying however, is the fast approach of winter which could leave internally displaced persons (IDPs) stranded in difficult living conditions if roads become blocked due to snow.

Forecast

In the meantime, the new leader of the TTP militia, Hakimullah Mehsud, has said that the army has now become the militants’ main target. He warned that the Taliban would not let the offensive go unanswered and he is believed to be behind some if not all of the seven major terrorist attacks across Pakistan in the past fortnight. If October’s bloodshed was anything to judge by, the coming months look to be violent with repeated attacks inside and outside the tribal area and with military and possibly humanitarian targets most at risk.

Related Maplecroft Risk Indices - Pakistan

Please click below to find out more about Maplecroft's Risk Indices and related maps, which quantify intrinsic country risk across a range of non-financial issues.

Conflict and Political Violence

Extreme risk

Low risk

Index: 1.2

0

10

Impact of Conflict on Society

Extreme risk

Low risk

Index: 3.2

0

10