Global Risks Forecast

Violence in the southern Casamance region has flared up between separatist rebels and the Senegalese military. While President Abdoulaye Wade is determined to control the peace process, civilians could be increasingly targeted by rebels in the short term

Event

Two civilians in a goods vehicle were gunned down near Badiana village, 35km north-west of the regional capital Ziguinchor on 26 August 2009. The gunmen were believed to be former rebels from the Casamance Movement of Democratic Forces (MFDC). The incident follows four days of fighting between the Senegalese military and suspected MFDC rebels south of the capital. The government may extend a curfew imposed on key highways in recent months as rebels are increasingly targeting civilians

Significance

The UN has said it has now restricted movements in the region around Ziguinchor. There is no commercial air service at present and there are few alternatives to the highways due to the presence of landmines. Aid workers have said that the renewed fighting has led to the displacement of local residents, though they do not specify the number. As many as 60,000 civilians are believed to have been displaced during 27 years of conflict as MFDC attempted to gain autonomy for the region. In an attempt to increase security on the two main highways outside of Ziguinchor, the government imposed curfews (running between 7pm and 6.30am) on the key transport routes in mid-June. This followed several ambushes that month which led to the death of a fishmonger and two truckers. The latest attack on the highway near Badiana village on 26 August followed an attempt earlier that day to stop a vehicle carrying parliamentarian Oumar Sane. The attack slightly injured a gendarme on board. The gendarmerie also report that an attempt to rob a store in Diabir (near to the capital’s airport) was repelled by military on 26 August.

Coup brought warning signs

The level of insecurity has grown in recent months, complicated by the security situation in neighbouring countries such as Guinea Bissau and Guinea. Indications of a new flare up in violence came in March 2009, following the assassination of President Joao Bernardo Vieira in Guinea Bissau, during an attack on the presidential palace. Instability there raised the risk of conflict in Casamance due to ethnic connections between the two regions. Guinea Bissau has served in the past as a base for separatists and acted as a supplier of arms. In May 2009 Radio France Internationale claimed that suspected rebels had made three attacks on military bases in Casamance over the course of a week, apparently with no casualties. The perpetrators were believed to be members of the MFDC.

Then in July 2009, President Wade was forced to downplay reports that rebels were gathering along the Casamance border regions in preparation for a new attack on Guinea. During a cabinet meeting, Wade called allegations of the impending attack “totally false and baseless”, though some suggested they were intended to give the military junta in Guinea a reason to postpone elections that are due by year-end.

Casamance’s isolation

Concerningly, MDFC rebels have increasingly targeted civilians through carjacking, looting and attacks on farmers. For example, in May 2008 a group of villagers harvesting cashew nuts were mutilated by MDFC members. In July 2009, a similar attack was reported leaving at least one youth missing and believed dead. There were at least 20 carjacking incidents between May and June, according to a German development organisation GTZ Procas.

MDFC has fought for the independence of Casamance since the 1980s, claiming that the promise made by Senegal’s first president to grant independence to the region 20 years after the French withdrawal in 1960 was never fulfilled. The 300km strip of land situated between the Gambia and Guinea Bissau is ecologically richer than the rest of the country and a major producer of food and cotton. It also generates most of Senegal’s revenues from tourism.

Yet Casamance has one of the highest poverty rates in the country, according to a 2007 UN World Food Programme Study. The study found that more than half of households were vulnerable to food insecurity. The authorities have also been accused of economic neglect, which has fuelled violence. Villagers have become afraid of harvesting and agricultural activity, which are not protected by curfews. MDFC is believed to benefit from selling locally harvested goods, as well as cannabis. Rebels have increasingly warned villagers to stay away from the fields or risk being taken for army informants. Locals do not believe that a curfew offers a long-term solution to the violence and say that it increases economic problems in the region by restricting movement and trade.

Poor prospects for peace

The state, dominated by Wade’s Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS), is determined to control any future attempts to negotiate peace in the region. This may be due to the failure of previous initiatives. In 2001, MFDC signed a peace deal with President Abdoulaye Wade that included prisoner releases and the return of refugees. However, the deal fell through and caused a splinter group of MFDC rebels to separate from the main body. These individuals claimed that the cease-fire was a betrayal of their desire for autonomy, which they continued to fight for. The last serious attempt at peace negotiations, which took place in 2005, was equally short-lived.

During August 2009 state officials met with a collective of regional representative groups from Casamance to discuss ways to restore peace. Wade favours the appointment of a “Mr Casamance” state representative for the region, according to local reports (PDS controls the Ziguinchor council). However, the regional collective appears unconvinced of Wade’s strategy for peace. Meanwhile, the opposition Party of Independence and Labour (Pit, which boycotted the 2007 elections) met with an MFDC delegation to discuss obstacles to the peace process. They have criticised the state’s failure to involve those outside Casamance in the peace process. Pit says they will continue to talk with MFDC.

Forecast

Prospects for long-term peace at this stage appear limited due to the lack of dialogue between all affected groups and the military’s belief that it can control any MFDC uprising. This could force the rebels to continue targeting civilians. Further restrictions on movement such as extended curfews will do little to improve the security situation of locals and will adversely affect their livelihoods. NGOs meanwhile expect that more people will be displaced.

Related Maplecroft Risk Indices - Senegal

Please click below to find out more about Maplecroft's Risk Indices and related maps, which quantify intrinsic country risk across a range of non-financial issues.

Conflict and Political Violence

Extreme risk

Low risk

Index: 6.3

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10

Poverty and Development

Extreme risk

Low risk

Index: 2.7

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10