Global Risks Forecast

Although successfully foiling the latest terrorist plot, the government may fast-track security measures to complement those already in place

Event

On 11 August 2009, Kuwait’s interior ministry announced that state security forces arrested six members of a “terrorist network” linked to al-Qaeda. While the arrests reflect the effectiveness of the Kuwaiti authorities in pre-empting terrorist attacks on home soil, they also highlight the fact that Kuwait remains a target for militant Islamists.

Significance

The six Kuwaiti nationals were planning to bomb a number of sites including the headquarters of Kuwait’s internal security agency, the 200,000 barrels a day Shuaiba oil refinery 80km south of Kuwait City, and Arifjan camp - a US military base located 60km south of the capital which hosts up to 15,000 US troops rotated in and out of neighbouring Iraq. The interior minister reported that other “important facilities” were also to have been bombed, but he did not reveal what these were.

Since 2002, Kuwait has experienced three incidents of Islamist violence and at least two terrorist plots have been uncovered. In early 2005, security forces clashed with an al-Qaeda linked group, Peninsula Lions, in Kuwait’s Maidan Hawalli, Umm Al Haiman, Salmiya and Al Qurain districts and neighbourhoods. Eight militants (including two Saudi nationals) and four police officers were killed during the gun battles. Some 40 suspects were later arrested. The Interior ministry at the time said that the militants were planning attacks against residential compounds housing US expatriates and state security headquarters in Kuwait City. The group was also planning to target US troops in the country.

Prior to this, the discovery of a plot by a group of Kuwaiti soldiers to target the US military in December 2004 highlighted the risk that members of the security forces were subscribing to violent jihadist doctrine. In January 2003 an Islamist civil servant ambushed the car of two US contractors near Camp Doha, a US army camp, North of Kuwait City. He killed one and seriously wounded the other. Less recently, in October 2002, two young Kuwaiti Islamists opened fire on US soldiers training on Failaka Island, 12 miles off the coast of Kuwait City, killing one.

Measures to deter militant Islam

Over the past seven years, the Kuwaiti government has bolstered security measures to deter terrorism in the country. Since Iraq’s insurgency erupted in the aftermath of the US-led in invasion in 2003, Kuwaiti authorities have installed infrared cameras along its common border to deter the flow of militants into the emirate. It also increased the number of checkpoints, coastal patrols and helicopter reconnaissance flights to monitor border activity.

In a parallel effort to prevent home-grown extremism, Kuwaiti authorities have increased the regulation of religious preaching to combat views that could incite or create sympathy for militant Islam. The government has also banned women from wearing the veil while driving so as to prevent militants from concealing their identities (although enforcement is weak). It also banned Islamic organisations from placing charity boxes on the streets. The security forces also enjoy wide powers to search for and seize illegal weapons. Yet, as the recent terrorist plot shows, Kuwait remains vulnerable to attack despite these measures.

Geography and political orientation

This is not only because the ruling al-Sabah family and parliamentarians support the use of the country’s territory as a launch pad for US forces operating in Iraq. Kuwait’s vulnerability also derives from its geographical position between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the governments of which continue to fight radical Islam at home (see our related article). Although Kuwait’s 240km long border with Iraqi is considered to be relatively secure, the common 222km border with Saudi Arabia is more permeable, with tribes crossing from one side to the other with relative ease. As recently as July 2009, Saudi officials signed a five-year deal to build a high-tech fence along its entire national border with a consortium led by European aerospace and defence contractor EADS. The Saudi government’s concerted campaign to kill or convert militant Islamists raises the risk that fighters will cross into Kuwait to pursue violent jihad next door before border security has been tightened. Comparatively speaking, Kuwait has less experience than Saudi Arabia in fighting al-Qaeda and its associated groups.

Conditions against radical Islam

This is not to suggest that Kuwait is, or has the potential, to transform into a hotbed for militant Islam. The country is considered to be amongst the most moderate and pro-American in the Arab world. Although Kuwait was deeply concerned by the Bush administration’s handling of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the years of bloodshed that has followed, Kuwaitis continue to feel indebted to the US for forcing Saddam Hussein’s army to leave following its invasion of the emirate in 1990. Moreover, secure government jobs and generous pay give Kuwait’s indigenous population of just under 1.1m little reason to complain.

Chinks in its armour

Yet, the Kuwaiti government could take further measures to reduce the risk of terrorism in the region. Although Al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups do not enjoy strong local support in the emirate, there have been high-ranking Kuwaitis in al-Qaeda including Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and Sulaiman Abu Ghaith. This underlies the risk that Kuwaitis will continue to be recruited into al-Qaeda’s ranks.

The US also remains concerned that outfits which front as Islamic charities but channel funding to militant Islamist groups continue to operate in the region. A persistent US complaint has been that that Kuwaiti government lacks sufficiently stringent enforcement mechanisms to combat terrorism financing and money laundering. The US froze the assets of the Kuwait-based NGO, the Revival of Islamic Heritage Society, in June 2008, alleging that it was funnelling money to al-Qaeda and its affiliate organisations.

Also concerning to the US has been Kuwait’s apparent reluctance to investigate or monitor the actions of Kuwaiti nationals. In its April 2009 Country Reports on Terrorism, the US State Department stated: “In general, the Kuwaiti government was more likely to take action against non-Kuwaiti residents involved in terrorist facilitation, but showed reluctance to take legal or preventative action against key local Sunni extremists unless there was a perception of clear and direct danger to Kuwaiti or US interests.”

Forecast

The Kuwaiti government therefore has reason to fear that a successful terrorist attack could occur in the weeks and months ahead. As such, the authorities will likely continue to enhance the security measures they had already begun implementing. In October, 2008 the Council of Ministers produced a US$2.7bn plan for counterterrorism initiatives to be implemented by 2012. This includes countering radical thought, enforcing international agreements relating to terrorism, censoring radical web sites, reviving the role of NGOs in combating radicalism and establishing preventive security measures (including a US$1bn CCTV surveillance system) to protect infrastructure and vital installation. Although successfully foiling the latest plot, the threat of terrorism on home soil should provide the government with the incentive to fast-track security measures to complement those already in place.

Related Maplecroft Risk Indices - Kuwait

Please click below to find out more about Maplecroft's Risk Indices and related maps, which quantify intrinsic country risk across a range of non-financial issues.

Conflict and Political Violence

Extreme risk

Low risk

Index: 7.3

0

10

Energy Security (long term)

Extreme risk

Low risk

Index: 4.5

0

10

Energy Security (short term)

Extreme risk

Low risk

Index: 7.4

0

10

Human Rights Risk

Extreme risk

Low risk

Index: 4.8

0

10