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Global map of energy security, seismic, tsunami and storm surge risks highlights vulnerable nuclear power facilities

24/03/2011

Image courtesy of osde8info - flickr

The recent Fukushima Daiichi crisis has reopened the nuclear debate. Risk analysis and mapping firm Maplecroft has produced a global map of nuclear power stations, revealing the vulnerability to seismic, tsunami and storm surge risk of these facilities and the levels of energy security risks that countries face in the long-term; which begs the question about their need to rely on nuclear energy as an alternative to conventional sources.

The map has been produced for companies to identify potential risks to operations supply chains and investments worldwide and to support disaster preparedness programmes, that build on the lessons from the Fukushima Daiichi disaster.

The highest concentrations of seismic risk are concentrated around the ‘Pacific Ring of Fire’. Japan clearly stands out as having the highest concentration of nuclear facilities in an active seismic area, however Taiwan, South Korea and mainland China also have nuclear plants in areas exposed to either seismic or tsunami and storm surge hazards.

The USA, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China are amongst the top nuclear power producing nations in terms of absolute energy production. Justifiable concerns about nuclear power generation, especially in seismically active areas, will need to be balanced against the threat to long-term energy security. These concerns also need to be looked at in tandem with commitments to diversify energy supply away from carbon intensive generation to reduce overall emissions.

Global map of energy security (long-term), seismic, tsunami and storm surge risk

© Maplecroft, 2011

Data sources Maplecroft's Energy Security Risk Index (Long-Term); World Nuclear Association (2011); UNEP (2009) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction; Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (1999)

Download map (only available to subscribers of the Global Risks Portfolio)

Further risks exist in the potential destructive power of storm surges. The eastern seaboard of the United States and northern coastal Europe are exposed to storm surges from intense low pressure weather systems (either tropical cyclones or severe extra-tropical cyclones). There are nuclear power facilities located in each of these regions and construction of these facilities will need to account for the storm surge potential.

In the Gulf of Mexico storm surges in excess of seven metres have been recorded during tropical cyclones. In contrast to the recent Japanese tsunami, storm surges can be forecast further in advance thus ensuring populations, governments and industry can be more adequately prepared.

Events over the last two weeks have tested the nerves of governments and investors, particularly in Europe where nuclear power accounts for some of the highest proportion of energy generation. European and other nuclear producing nations will now need to balance public opinion, investor confidence and natural hazards against the longer term implications of rejecting nuclear power as an energy source.

Maplecroft will be releasing a series of indices and interactive sub-national natural disasters maps over the coming months, which will include earthquake, tsunami, cyclone, volcanic, flooding, drought, landslide, wild fire risk.

For more information contact info@maplecroft.com or call +44 (0)1225 420000