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Potential earthquake and tsunami risks to nuclear power facilities shown on Maplecroft energy security maps

04/04/2011

The situation at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan has prompted questions on nuclear power generation. The global reaction to events in Japan has been similar to those nearly thirty-two years ago when the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island Plant in Pennsylvania gripped the world's attention and shaped US energy policy for years. However, since the incident in the 1970s world energy demands have grown and the global community has committed itself to divesting energy away from carbon intensive electricity generation. Recent years have seen growing support for nuclear energy generation, and a loss of confidence similar to that seen in the wake of Three Mile Island has the potential to compromise long-term energy supply.

Maplecroft's Energy Security Long-term Risk Index assesses the risk posed to the long-term availability of reliable and affordable supplies of energy to meet consumption requirements within each country, based on data concerning consumption, diversity of energy sources and fossil fuel dependency, reserves and production.

Figure 1: Global map of Energy Security (Long-Term) Risk Index

© Maplecroft, 2011

Data sources Maplecroft (2010) Energy Security Long-term Risk Index

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Analysis by Maplecroft sought to understand the distribution of nuclear facilities, which were located in regions where energy security was at risk. Figure 2 below shows Maplecroft's Energy Security Long-term Risk Index and nuclear facilities. Maplecroft used data from the World Nuclear Association's Nuclear Database to plot and map operating and planned nuclear facilities. It is noted that this is a list of nuclear facilities; a single power station location may have multiple nuclear facilities within it.

Figure 2: Global map of Energy Security (Long-Term) Risk Index and nuclear facilities

© Maplecroft, 2011

Data sources Maplecroft (2010) Energy Security Long-term Risk Index; World Nuclear Association (2011)

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The majority of the nations which are at 'extreme' risk in terms of long-term energy supply are small island nations which typically have a limited resource base to diversify energy supply. China is identified as 'high' risk for energy security due to its predicted change in energy consumption and the fossil fuel intensity of the economy. China has fifty-four nuclear facilities which are either operating, planned or under construction. Most of Europe and North America is at medium risk of long-term energy supply and this is where the majority of the operating, planned and under construction facilities are. A movement away from nuclear power generation could reduce the diversity of energy supply and increase the long-term energy security of these countries.

How many of the operating, planned or under construction facilities are at risk of earthquake activity?

The magnitude 9.0 earthquake off-shore of Honshu was a significantly larger earthquake than seismologists had considered possible in this area of Japan. A key characteristic of earthquakes are the long periods between occurrences. Hence relying on historical observations of earthquakes is not necessarily indicative of the magnitude of future earthquakes. Key to understanding the damage caused by earthquakes is an assessment of how much the ground moves during an earthquake. Maplecroft have utilised the work of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) which was compiled by joining regional maps on seismic hazard. Seismic hazard is expressed as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA is a measure of ground movement and considers factors beyond that of simply the magnitude (which expresses the energy released), and therefore captures how areas will respond to the seismic waves caused by the earthquake. Areas which are at high (PGA between 2.5 - 5 m/s2) and extreme (PGA > 5 m/s2) risk are shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Global map of Energy Security (Long-Term) Risk Index nuclear facilities and earthquake risk

© Maplecroft, 2011

Data sources Maplecroft (2010) Energy Security Long-term Risk Index; World Nuclear Association (2011); Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (1999)

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Japan has the highest concentration of nuclear facilities exposed to high or extreme risk of earthquakes. However nuclear sites in areas of high or extreme risk of earthquakes can be found in western USA, Taiwan, Armenia, Iran and Slovenia. Taiwan and Iran are both at 'high' risk in terms of their long term energy supply.

How many of the operating, planned or under construction facilities are at risk of tsunamis?

Tsunamis are very rare occurrences - over the last twenty years an average of less than 10 tsunamis were detected a year. Of those tsunamis detected since 1990 nearly 40% were less than 0.5m high. Such tsunamis are likely to be within the ranges of sea level fluctuations which occur as part of normal tidal regimes. Damaging and destructive tsunamis are much rarer.

Along a particular coastline the height of tsunami waves will vary locally according to a complex array of factors. Of particular importance is the direction which waves approach the coastline and the shape of the sea floor on the wave run-up. Tsunami waves which hit north-eastern Honshu on 11th March were, in places, higher than was considered plausible. At the Fukushima Daiichi plant, reports suggest the plant was designed to withstand a 5.7m tsunami however the actual wave height reportedly reached 14m high.

To assess the nuclear facilities potentially exposed to tsunami risk Maplecroft have identified coasts where tsunamis have been detected, observed and/or caused damage. Some nuclear facilities utilise seawater in their processes and as such nuclear facilities are often found clustered along coasts. However, the map is designed to show which coastlines are at risk and cannot accurately assess the risks to individual nuclear facilities that are subject to different geographical factors, safety systems and plant designs.

A plot of tsunami exposed coastlines and nuclear facilities is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Global map of Energy Security (Long-Term) Risk Index nuclear facilities and tsunami risk

© Maplecroft, 2011

Data sources Maplecroft (2010) Energy Security Long-term Risk Index; World Nuclear Association (2011); UNEP (2009) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction

Download map (only available to subscribers of the Global Risks Portfolio)

Japan's nuclear facilities are particularly exposed to tsunami risk. However South Korea, Taiwan, southern China, India, Pakistan and the west coast of the USA have operating or planned nuclear facilities on tsunami exposed coastlines. Of these countries China and Taiwan has the greatest risk of long-term energy security.

Movements away from nuclear energy generation in these countries, in the light of the Fukushima Daiichi crisis, may have serious implications for energy security in the longer term.

For more information contact info@maplecroft.com or call +44 (0)1225 420000

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