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Africa home to 38 countries with most HIV/AIDS risk – Global study

African mining sector is particularly vulnerable to the disease

01/12/2010

The populations, economies and companies of Sub-Saharan Africa are still most at risk from the impacts of HIV/AIDS despite improvements in prevalence rates and treatment, according to a new study, which evaluates the impact of the disease on 151 countries.

Global risk advisory firm, Maplecroft, has identified 43 countries as ‘high’ or ‘extreme risk’ - 38 of which are located in sub-Saharan Africa. The region is also home to all 18 countries in the ‘extreme risk’ category with Mozambique (1), Uganda (2), Zambia (3), Tanzania (4), Kenya (5), Zimbabwe (6), Malawi (7), Cameroon (8), Chad (9) and Nigeria (10) bottom of the ranking. The countries from other regions rated as ‘high risk’ include: Haiti (26), Thailand (32), Myanmar (40), Russia (41) and India (43).

The HIV/AIDS Risk Index has been released by Maplecroft to coincide with World AIDS Day on 01 December 2011. It is calculated using three indicators measuring the prevalence of HIV/AIDS in adults, the total number of adults living with the HIV/AIDS and the capacity of each country to contain the disease. It is developed to identify the risk posed by HIV/AIDS to the human health, economy and business environment of each country.

“AIDS is now the world’s leading cause of premature death in adults under 60 years old,” stated Maplecroft Analyst, Chris Laws. “However, whilst HIV/AIDS is primarily seen as a health problem, it has also has socio-economic implications for the development of countries and it holds significant risks for business sectors such as mining, which have extensive interests in the most exposed regions, including sub-Saharan Africa.”

The mining industry in Africa is particularly vulnerable to the aids epidemic, primarily because miners have high levels of interaction with sex workers and move from one high risk environment to another in search of work. This is of particular concern given that the economies of many countries in Africa depend on the industry. The risks posed by failing to address these issues include loss of valuable human skills, reduced workforce productivity, increased absenteeism, as well as high healthcare and insurance costs to companies.

HIV/AIDS Risk Index

Legend
Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
No Data

Rank	Country	Rating
1	Mozambique	Extreme
2	Uganda	Extreme
3	Zambia	Extreme
4	Tanzania	Extreme
5	Kenya	Extreme

Rank	Country	Rating
6	Zimbabwe	Extreme
7	Malawi	Extreme
8	Cameroon	Extreme
9	Chad	Extreme
10	Nigeria	Extreme

© Maplecroft, 2010

These problems are implicit in South Africa (15 and ‘extreme risk’). One of the largest producers of gold and diamonds, the country is home to world’s biggest HIV positive population, numbering 5.6 million people.  A recent Reuters report revealing that the HIV rate amongst South African miners is almost twice that of the rest of the working population. Even more worrying for South Africa is a recent report from the Centre for Economic Governance and AIDS in Africa and the Results for Development Institute that estimates the country could see an additional 5 million people infected with the disease in the next two decades even if it doubles spending for treatment and prevention. The movement of workers between nations, with high rates of AIDS infection and prevalence also poses a threat.  For example, South Africa is closely integrated with its neighbouring countries, particularly Mozambique, Botswana and Namibia.

Mozambique is the country most at risk in the index.  The country has been hit hard by the AIDS epidemic, with 1.4 million people thought to be infected with HIV in 2009 alone.  Mozambique has in recent years struggled to rebuild its dilapidated healthcare system and today under 40% of adults eligible for antiretroviral HIV treatment actually receive it. Low education levels, the difficulty surrounding open discussion of AIDS amongst workers and the social stigma attached to AIDS have made prevention efforts harder in the country. By contrast Botswana (16) is considered to have one of Africa's most progressive and comprehensive programs for dealing with AIDS. The government has introduced three major new national policies designed to scale up the response to the epidemic focused around prevention, treatment, testing and counselling.

In 1997, the global AIDS epidemic is thought to have peaked and a comparison with today’s figures shows the extent of progress.  According to UN AIDS, in 2009, an estimated 2.6m people became newly infected with HIV, a decline of 21% from 1997 numbers.  Between 2001 and 2009, HIV incidence fell by over a quarter in 33 countries, 22 of which are sub-Saharan Africa.  New infections among children are decreasing, with the last five years seeing a 24% drop in infections and AIDS related deaths are also decreasing from the 2004 peak year, from 2.1m to an estimated 1.8m.

However, whilst hugely encouraging, the progress made in tackling the global AIDS epidemic cannot obscure the severity of the current situation.  The overall level of new HIV infections is still high and, as a consequence of AIDS related mortality rates decreasing, the number of people living with HIV across the world has increased.

The countries with the least amount of risk from the disease include: Norway (151), Sweden (150), Greece (149), Finland (148) and New Zealand (147).

Email info@maplecroft.com for more information or call +44 (0)1225 420000.

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