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Maplecroft launches first in new Election Monitor series with analysis of the risks and opportunities presented by the presidential polls in Liberia

12/10/2011

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A new product – Maplecroft’s Election Monitor – is launched today to provide tailored analysis of the major business risks and implications from elections in countries worldwide, starting with the election in Liberia. Forthcoming election monitors will also include coverage of presidential and legislative elections in Argentina, DR Congo, Egypt and Russia amongst others.

Maplecroft’s Election Monitor will be delivered in at least two parts – the first offering analysis and forecasts in the run-up to the election; the second providing results, an assessment of the election and analysis of the implications to industry sectors and investors. Further updates may be released following recounts of votes, second round presidential election or crucial primaries.

Election monitors will provide in-depth analysis of short term risks to the business environment, such as election fraud and political violence throughout the election period, as well as a longer term assessments forecasting the potential outcomes of the election. Stakeholder viewpoints will be analysed as will key events, such as rallies or changes in allegiance of the armed forces.

Maplecroft’s Election Monitor will also offer detailed background information; identifying the country’s political structure, election processes and existing support for the incumbent government. Profiles of candidates presenting information on their party, political career to date, as well as key policies in regards to business sectors are also included.

One key purpose of the election monitors is to identify the key risks and benefits to business and the overall stability of investment climate presented by potential changes in regime or a continuation of the political status quo. They will also provide risk trends; analysis of primary investment risks; the geopolitical dimension; and likely reaction from the business world.

The Election Monitor forecast by Maplecroft from the Liberia election, which took place on 11 October, 2011, includes:

• Maplecroft view the most likely scenario as a second-round run-off between Unity Party (UP) candidate, current President Ellen Sirleaf-Johnson and Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) candidate, Winston Tubman. Sirleaf-Johnson is likely to secure the support of those who voted for candidates of smaller parties in the first round, aiding her re-election bid in the second round. A continuance of Sirleaf’s rule could further placate investor concerns over the country’s stability, leading to a more attractive investment climate and continued economic growth.
• Pressure to ensure that foreign investment benefits local citizens and communities will continue and the incoming government may be forced to implement more populist policies to avoid dissent.
• In the less likely scenario that Winston Tubman is elected, a change in presidency would bring a degree of uncertainty to foreign investors. The potential for contract reviews, particularly those in the natural resources sectors, is high under a new government. This will discourage foreign investment in the short term but there is unlikely to be a radical shift from the current investment climate. Foreign investment will continue to be encouraged in order to fund post-conflict reconstruction whichever candidate is elected.

The Election Monitor – Liberia is freely available to trial users and subscribers to the Global Risks Portfolio.

Register for trial access or for more information contact info@maplecroft.com or call
+44 (0)1225 420000.

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