News

Syria tops Maplecroft’s Displacement Index, while refugees from Libya’s civil war see the country rated ‘extreme risk’

22/06/2011

New research, ranking 185 countries on the risks posed to their economies by large populations of refugees and internally displaced persons, has rated Syria as the nation most at risk, whilst the human impacts of the civil war in Libya have seen it categorised as ‘extreme risk.’

The Displacement Index, produced by risk analysis and mapping firm Maplecroft, measures the potential impact internally displaced peoples (IDPs) and refugees have on the economies, societies and business environments of countries worldwide. The index is calculated using five indicators, including displaced people and refugees per 100,000 population, overall numbers and refugees per US$1bn GDP. Sources include the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, UN OCHA and the Global Trends Report 2010 from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), released on June 20th.

The index rates 24 countries as ‘extreme risk,’ with Africa and the Middle East home to 19 of them. At the top of the ranking are Syria (1), Sudan (2), Yemen (3), Rwanda (4), Serbia (5), Chad (6), DR Congo (7), Kenya (8), Pakistan (9), and Algeria (10). Other countries of note in the ‘extreme risk’ category include Côte d'Ivoire (14), Iraq (16) and Libya (22).

The UNHCR report, Global Trends 2010, reveals that in 2010 there were 43.7 million displaced worldwide, the largest number in 15 years, of which 15.4 million are refugees and 27.5 million IDPs. According to Maplecroft Analyst, Dr Charlie Beldon, “an influx of people can put pressure on infrastructure and heighten tensions amongst the resident population with knock on effects to the business environment.” Professor Alyson Warhurst, CEO of Maplecroft, also states that, “while these trends are worrying, of particular concern is the fact that human rights violations are frequent where displacement is occurring and that women and girls were particularly vulnerable.”

Maplecroft's Displacement Index

Legend
Extreme risk
High risk
Medium risk
Low risk
No Data

Rank	Country	Rating
1	Syria	Extreme
2	Sudan	Extreme
3	Yemen	Extreme
4	Rwanda	Extreme
5	Serbia	Extreme

Rank	Country	Rating
6	Chad	Extreme
7	DR Congo	Extreme
8	Kenya	Extreme
9	Pakistan	Extreme
10	Algeria	Extreme

© Maplecroft, 2011

In 2010, the highest risk country in the index, Syria, was host to the third largest refugee population in the world, at just over 1 million people, most of which had fled fighting in Iraq. This is a decline of 0.5 million from a peak in refugee numbers in 2007, as many refugees that left Iraq during the height conflict have since returned home.  However, the political situation within Syria continues to deteriorate in 2011 as clashes between Syrian forces and protesters force people to abandon their homes. As of the 12 June, 2011 more than 10,000 people had reportedly travelled over the border into Turkey, although many more are expected if the crisis worsens.

The recent fighting in Libya has created thousands of new refugees and IDPs, which is reflected by the country's 'extreme' risk rating in the index. The full scale of the humanitarian crisis in Libya is not yet understood due to the evolving situation and the difficulty in obtaining precise and reliable data from some areas of the country. However, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has estimated that in the most likely scenario over 1.5 million people will be affected by the conflict, many of which are fleeing Libya into neighbouring countries.

However, conflict and internal unrest are not the only causes of displacement. Pakistan, which has the largest refugee population, totalling 1,900,621 people, must also cope with a large population of people displaced by the devastation caused by the 2010 monsoon floods. Initially, 1,550,000 Pakistanis were displaced to camps in drier areas and although 95% of IDPs have been able to return to their homes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, in Sindh province, nearly 85% of the population remained affected at the end of 2010.

The floods highlight what may become a worsening issue of environmental refugees as severe weather phenomena become more frequent and severe as our climate changes. Long-term changes such as drought, changing monsoon seasons, desertification and sea level rise are likely to create increasing numbers of displaced people.

Many of those countries that are most vulnerable in the Displacement Index are also the poorest countries in the world. The UNHCR Global Trends, 2010 report reveals that 80% of the world’s refugees are hosted in developing countries that struggle to support these large populations of vulnerable people. The countries that have the lowest financial capacity per refugee (number of refugees per US$1bn GDP) are Chad (6), Liberia (17), Burundi (13) Jordan (19) and Syria (1).

For more information contact info@maplecroft.com or call +44 (0)1225 420000.

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