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Mozambique

Maplecroft's Country Risk Briefing on Mozambique offers detailed analysis and maps of the governance framework, the regulatory and business environment, political violence, human rights, the environment and climate change, plus an economic overview.

Mozambique is at high risk from the expected impacts of climate change. Temperatures could rise substantially in the coming decades and rainfall variability causing less precipitation in dry seasons interspersed by increased flood risks. Southern Mozambique is becoming susceptible to droughts which have become more frequent over the past decade. Flooding in central regions has also become an increasing problem. Environmental legislation is becoming more developed although the authorities have been known to forgo environmental regulations in order to maintain an attractive investment climate.

Although the civil war ended in 1991, firearms remain widely available throughout Mozambique. Excessive use of force and abuse by police remains widespread throughout the country and many police officers are generally not brought to justice for unlawful killings. Riots in the summer of 2010 resulting from the rising price of basic commodities, including bread, killed six people in the country’s capital, Maputo. Risk of a reoccurrence is high due to the government’s self-proclaimed inability to control global wheat prices and its recent review of subsidies which keep the price of fuel low.

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Saudi Arabia

Maplecroft's Country Risk Briefing on Saudi Arabia offers analysis of the governance framework, the economy, the regulatory and business environment, political violence, human rights, in addition to the environment and climate change.

Following limited protests in the first two quarters of 2011, the ruling al-Saud family has sought to suppress public dissent through a range of measures. The ban on public protests has been upheld whilst laws have been amended to strengthen government control over the media. The al-Saud family has also drawn on its alliance with the Wahabbist clerical establishment to denounce protests as un-Islamic and pledged to spend over US$100bn on public welfare. Although the regime has managed to prevent widespread protests from emerging, its zero-tolerance policy on public dissent risks aggravating tensions. As such, continuing short-term stability does not guarantee regime stability in the medium to long term.

Saudi Arabia remains a high-value target for a number of militant Islamist groups. The country faces an elevated terrorism threat which has been sustained following the killing of Osama bin Laden. The kingdom is likely to remain a primary target as al-Qaeda seeks to carry out strikes in retaliation for the killing of Bin Laden. The assassination of a Saudi diplomat in Pakistan in May 2011 highlights this risk. The unstable situation in Yemen and the porous Saudi-Yemeni border means that Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula represents a particularly prominent threat.

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Tunisia

Maplecroft's Country Risk Briefing on Tunisia offers detailed analysis and maps of the governance framework, the regulatory and business environment, political violence, human rights, the environment and climate change, plus an economic overview.

Following six months of upheaval, the removal of former President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and multiple changes of leaders and cabinet officials, Tunisia is now moving into a post-revolutionary period of greater stability. The economy is still in a dire state, unemployment is conservatively placed at 16% by government officials. Foreign businesses and investors are still cautious over returning. Strikes continue to disrupt business, highlighting the fact that many of the issues which brought about the conditions for the revolution are far from resolved. The active and vocal role trade unions in Tunisia are taking means that companies are exposed to the risk of strike action and reputational risk should they be found to not be ensuring workers rights. The crisis in neighbouring Libya has already caused a large influx of refugees into Tunisia, and a worsening situation in Libya could exacerbate this issue and add further strain to the economy.

Tunisia continues to face the threat of terrorism, stemming from the regional reach of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and other militant Islamist groups. Skirmishes have been reported between Tunisian security forces and individuals alleged to be affiliated with AQIM. The deterioration in security within Libya means that a greater influx of AQIM fighters looking to destabilise and frustrate the emergence of democracy in Tunisia is possible. Human security continues to be threatened by heavy handed security forces who act with impunity. Businesses should therefore be highly cautious if relying on Tunisian security forces to protect their interests.

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